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November 25, 2024
‘Tis the season for beverage alcohol market trends predictions. Each year, market insiders look into their crystal balls and make predictions about trends to watch for in the upcoming year. This post summarizes alcohol market trends in 2025 as predicted by IWSR (International Wine & Spirits Record).
Modest recovery in 2025
Following a 1% global volume decline in 2023 due to inflation and cost-of-living pressures, the beverage alcohol market is expected to recover starting in 2025, with modest growth led by India, China, and the US.
Spirits in low spirits
In 2023, IWSR recorded a -2% decline in the volume of spirits sold in the US – the first decline in 30 years. Growth from 2023-28 is expected to be slow with a predicted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +1% by volume.
Shift to developing markets
Emerging economies (India, China, Brazil, Mexico) to drive growth, putting pressure on companies to implement strategies that increase opportunities in the global market. Two such strategies are category diversification and increasing global reach.
Premiumization slows
Core premium spirits and wine decline (-3%), but super-premium tiers remain stable.
Beer
Beer growth remains slow and steady with +1% CAGR expected between 2023-28.
RTD
Ready-to-drink cocktails were the only beverage alcohol category to show growth in 2023 (+2% by volume, +6% by value) and that growth is expected to continue with an increase of +3% from 2023-2028.
Agave spirits
Agave spirits are expected to continue their rise in markets outside of the U.S. and Mexico, including in Australia and Canada. ISWR predicts +6% growth from 2023-2028.
No-alcohol continues growth
The no-alcohol/low-alcohol market showed strong gains in 2023 with no-alcohol beer and spirits volumes up by 6% and 15%, respectively. The market has momentum and year-over-year growth is expected, being driven by health concerns, embracing of moderation, and financial pressures.
Source for the above: “Global beverage alcohol market set for moderate recovery in 2025, while challenges persist in 2024”, IWSR, June 5, 2024.
Further Reading
- “Why Liquor Stores Should Stock & Market Low Alcohol Beer & Wine”, Thrive Liquor & Cannabis Advisors.
- “Nine Spirit Trends You Can Expect in the 2025 U.S. Drinks Market”, Bartender Spirts Award, October 10, 2024.
- “10 Beverage Trends to Know for 2025”, Datassential.
Turning Alcohol Beverage Trends into Revenue
If you run a liquor business and want to know how to capitalize on beverage alcohol trends, the liquor consultants at Thrive Advisors can help. Not all trends translate to sales! If you run a liquor store, bar or restaurant, Thrive can help you identify top selling trend categories and SKUs.
